Topic created on 10th Aug. 2021 | Page: 37 of 43 | Answers: 424 | Views: 49,915
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Bundesliga betting game 2021 / 2022
24th Oct. 2021, at 09:07 pm CEST#362
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gambler67 wrote on 24.10.2021 at 21:00
no we leave everything as it is you come in here want to change everything i dont think that is a good idea. Wutmännchen has years of experience in this area . If you have not hit once you should not question everything and immediately panic. That's why there is bankroll management.
Why do I want to change everything? I'm just saying that if you want to bet on underdogs then it would be enough to go for an easy win instead of adding an additional 1 or 2+ goal margin, which makes a hit much more unrealistic again, but which wouldn't be necessary at all. Experience or not, I have that too.
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24th Oct. 2021, at 09:23 pm CEST#363
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Shiba-Inu wrote on 10/24/2021 at 9:07 pm
Why do I want to change everything? I'm just saying that if you want to bet on underdogs then going for an easy win would be enough, instead of adding in an additional 1 or 2+ goal margin, which would make scoring much more unrealistic again, which wouldn't even be necessary. Experience or not, I have that too
Best example currently
Bochum win 3.50 ✅
Bochum win with a one-goal gap ❌
And if we had tipped Bochum +2, we would have even had 13 odds.
But would have, would be and if doesn't matter at all.
I recommend you to read the first post in this thread. Read it and you will learn that this is a field test of Wutmaennchen for one season.
There is no need to discuss whether something is more lucrative, more appealing or has more value
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24th Oct. 2021, at 10:38 pm CEST#366
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Xavi22 wrote on 24.10.2021 at 22:11: And if we had tipped Bochum +2, we would even have had 13 odds.
Would have, would have and if doesn't matter completely though.
I recommend you the first post in this thread. Read it and you will learn that this is a field test of Wutmaennchen for one season.
There is no need to discuss whether something is more lucrative, more appealing or has more value.
I have read that, don't worry. And I have also read that Wutmännchen has already modified the field trial once and switched to system betting to achieve better and yes more lucrative results.
It's annoying for the few people like Raimann or Lance who were brave enough as it was and placed their picks for the underdog (both by 1 goal margins on Gladbach and Bochum) and still didn't get a point for it. If you had the option to go for a simple win, at odds higher than 3.00 anyway, you would also get more people to be braver and Tip on the "underdog", so that these tips end up being reflected in the betting slip, since there is no longer a distinction between 1 or 2 goals. But if you are forced to select 1 or 2+ goals difference, then that only discourages and you just decide for the supposed favorite to be on the safe side
With an X you don't make a difference whether X with 0,1 or more goals because X generally already brings 3 odds with it. So why should you select a goal difference with tip 1 or 2 with 3 odds. Is not logical
Shiba-Inu wrote on 24/10/2021 at 20:34
For example a simple win Freiburg for a 3.50 was like made for a system. Instead you have to go for quite wild things like whoever or whatever wins by one goal which is even more unlikely to score than an easy win for an "apparent" underdog
My suggestion for improvement for this betting game would be that if you want to bet on someone who already has odds higher than 3.00 for a simple win, then you can do so without the goal difference, since the odds would already be taken into account for a system bet....
Then one would get here in any case certainly more out
Well, as far as Freiburg is concerned, you are absolutely right. With something like that, you should be satisfied with the easy way.
@Shiba: The bet on exactly 1 or 2+ goals is of course gambling.
But if the tendency is correct, this 50% chance increases the odds enormously. A win for 2.0 thus quickly becomes odds of 4.0 if you guess the difference correctly. With 2.0 odds you don't make a win in the long run, but with 4.0 odds you do.
This gambling variant is the basis for the betting game and my theory that you can make a win in the long run with higher odds.
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25th Oct. 2021, at 10:28 pm CEST#369
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Wutmaennchen wrote on 25.10.2021 at 20:16: Evaluation will come tomorrow.
@Shiba: The bet on exactly 1 or 2+ goals is of course gambling.
But if the tendency is correct, this 50% chance just increases the odds tremendously. A win for 2.0 thus quickly becomes odds of 4.0 if you guess the difference correctly. With 2.0 odds you don't make a win in the long run, but with 4.0 odds you do.
This gambling variant is the basis for the betting game and my theory that you can make a win in the long run with higher odds.
Agree with you on the whole. With system tickets, high odds of 3.0 or more are necessary to be profitable. I would also push up 2.0 odds in that case by adding a goal difference, which is how it is handled now. But if the odds for a normal win bet are already more than 3.0, then in my opinion no further push by goal difference is necessary
But it's just my opinion and it is as Xavi has already mentioned everything just a field test. One should ask oneself with such a test, which result one wants to obtain exactly. If the results are not the desired ones, you can always adjust the concept by looking for improvement possibilities and changing details, as you have already done once. Then you can compare if the output has improved. That was just my first thought what to change if the results are not satisfying. But for an assessment of how successful the current concept will be, it is still too early after only 9 game days. So keep going!👍🏻
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Why do I want to change everything? I'm just saying that if you want to bet on underdogs then it would be enough to go for an easy win instead of adding an additional 1 or 2+ goal margin, which makes a hit much more unrealistic again, but which wouldn't be necessary at all. Experience or not, I have that too.
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Best example currently
Bochum win 3.50 ✅
Bochum win with a one-goal gap ❌
And only because of the last minute
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Bundesliga betting game 2021 / 2022
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But would have, would be and if doesn't matter at all.
I recommend you to read the first post in this thread. Read it and you will learn that this is a field test of Wutmaennchen for one season.
There is no need to discuss whether something is more lucrative, more appealing or has more value
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Bundesliga betting game 2021 / 2022
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I have read that, don't worry. And I have also read that Wutmännchen has already modified the field trial once and switched to system betting to achieve better and yes more lucrative results.
It's annoying for the few people like Raimann or Lance who were brave enough as it was and placed their picks for the underdog (both by 1 goal margins on Gladbach and Bochum) and still didn't get a point for it. If you had the option to go for a simple win, at odds higher than 3.00 anyway, you would also get more people to be braver and Tip on the "underdog", so that these tips end up being reflected in the betting slip, since there is no longer a distinction between 1 or 2 goals. But if you are forced to select 1 or 2+ goals difference, then that only discourages and you just decide for the supposed favorite to be on the safe side
With an X you don't make a difference whether X with 0,1 or more goals because X generally already brings 3 odds with it. So why should you select a goal difference with tip 1 or 2 with 3 odds. Is not logical
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Bundesliga betting game 2021 / 2022
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Well, as far as Freiburg is concerned, you are absolutely right. With something like that, you should be satisfied with the easy way.
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@Shiba: The bet on exactly 1 or 2+ goals is of course gambling.
But if the tendency is correct, this 50% chance increases the odds enormously. A win for 2.0 thus quickly becomes odds of 4.0 if you guess the difference correctly. With 2.0 odds you don't make a win in the long run, but with 4.0 odds you do.
This gambling variant is the basis for the betting game and my theory that you can make a win in the long run with higher odds.
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Bundesliga betting game 2021 / 2022
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Agree with you on the whole. With system tickets, high odds of 3.0 or more are necessary to be profitable. I would also push up 2.0 odds in that case by adding a goal difference, which is how it is handled now. But if the odds for a normal win bet are already more than 3.0, then in my opinion no further push by goal difference is necessary
But it's just my opinion and it is as Xavi has already mentioned everything just a field test. One should ask oneself with such a test, which result one wants to obtain exactly. If the results are not the desired ones, you can always adjust the concept by looking for improvement possibilities and changing details, as you have already done once. Then you can compare if the output has improved. That was just my first thought what to change if the results are not satisfying. But for an assessment of how successful the current concept will be, it is still too early after only 9 game days. So keep going!👍🏻
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I think we should rather replay the tips of gambler
The next game day:
Hoffenheim - Hertha
un ion - Bayern
Bielefeld - Mainz
Leverkusen - Wolfsburg
Dortmund - Cologne
Freiburg - Fürth
Frankfurt - Leipzig
Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart
Gladbach - Bochum
My tips:
Hoffenheim - Hertha - Win Hoffenheim 2+
un ion - Bayern - Win Bayern 2+
Bielefeld - Mainz - X
Leverkusen - Wolfsburg - X
Dortmund - Cologne - X
Freiburg - Fürth - Win Fürth by 1
Frankfurt - Leipzig - win Leipzig 2+
Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart - win VfB 2+
Gladbach - Bochum - X
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un ion - Bayern - victory Bayern with 2
Bielefeld - Mainz - Win Mainz with 1
Leverkusen - Wolfsburg - Win Wolfsburg with 1
Dortmund - Cologne - Win Dortmund with 1
Freiburg - Fürth - Win Freiburg with 2
Frankfurt - Leipzig - X
Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart - SIEG Augsburg with 1
Gladbach - Bochum - Gladbach with 2
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un ion - Bayern - Bayern 2+
Bielefeld - Mainz - Mainz with 1
Leverkusen - Wolfsburg - Leverkusen 2+
Dortmund - Cologne - Dortmund with 1
Freiburg - Fürth - Freiburg 2+
Frankfurt - Leipzig - Leipzig with 1
Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart - Stuttgart 2+
Gladbach - Bochum - Gladbach 2+
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