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News & Notices: The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today! (Page 17)

Topic created on 01st Dec. 2023 | Page: 17 of 39 | Answers: 577 | Views: 29,706
ManuMagie
Amateur

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

9th Dec. 2023, at 08:21 pm CET#241
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A very big thank you. I was allowed to be there today and I'm really happy about that.

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chriss1808
Experienced

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

9th Dec. 2023, at 09:25 pm CET#242
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-- This post was deleted --

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chriss1808
Experienced

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

9th Dec. 2023, at 09:29 pm CET#243
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Matthias wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:11:

Exactly pretty low, actually almost everyone should get a turn, but it's still a lottery and not a linear distribution

There are some who are luckier this year and others who are less lucky.
But on 01.01.2024 there will be a normal GJ Coin lottery again, so nobody has to be sad.
The calendar is just a bonus

i only calculated something for muschmusch, I didn't complain in any way, sorry if it came across that way! I was already among the winners of this calendar....
Falko wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:08:

You can also calculate what percentage the probability is of never being in the Advent calendar.

i'm mathematically a little zero but I'll give you a 10 if you manage to calculate it

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Hanshanshans
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

9th Dec. 2023, at 10:15 pm CET#244
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chriss1808 wrote on 09.12.2023 at 21:29:
i'm mathematically a little zero but I'll give you a 10 if you manage to work it out

Was once so free...😉

Hanshanshans



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gamble1
Legend

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

9th Dec. 2023, at 11:26 pm CET#245
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Matthias wrote on 09.12.2023 at 20:11:

Exactly pretty low, actually almost everyone should get a turn, but it's still a lottery and not a linear distribution

There are some who are luckier this year and others who are less lucky.
But on 01.01.2024 there will be a normal GJ Coin lottery again, so nobody has to be sad.
The calendar is just a bonus

Can you actually find out how often you have been drawn in the calendar in recent years or is that too much effort? I'd be really interested to know how many times I've been drawn as I'm pretty sure there's never been a day here that I wasn't in the Pot

I'd be really interested in my odds if I'm honest haha

The monthly raffle is really nice and clear

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hustlehoff
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 08:30 am CET#246
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Was only drawn on the 23rd or so last year ... thought it wasn't going to happen. But then I was drawn again ... so don't get upset ... the lottery is fair as far as the drawing is concerned. I've already been in once this year.

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hustlehoff
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 08:43 am CET#247
1 Like

Liked this post: Avatar von gagapapamama gagapapamama
I'm still in favor of a small consolation prize for users who have been active here for a long time, are in the lottery Pot every day and haven't even entered

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Uschi_23
Amateur

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 12:54 pm CET#248
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Muschmusch wrote on 09.12.2023 at 18:05: Where are the unlucky people who have had the same thing in every door as me for 9 days? 😬🙄


" Your name was in the lottery Pot, but unfortunately you didn't win today.
Tomorrow is a new day with hopefully a bit more luck. "

Congratulations to the winners anyway! 👍

Ditto unfortunately

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chriss1808
Experienced

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 01:38 pm CET#249
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Hanshanshans wrote on 09.12.2023 at 22:15:

Was once so free...😉

chriss1808




not bad Hanshanshans !!! did you google how to calculate it or did you know?

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Hanshanshans
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 02:20 pm CET#250
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chriss1808 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 13:38:not bad Hanshanshans !!! did you google how to calculate it or did you know?

Got a little help from chatgpt 😉

I already figured that the non-winner rate was low, but 4% is of course a great figure. Why can't it be so "difficult" not to win everywhere?

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frapi07
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 02:55 pm CET#251
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Hanshanshans wrote on 10.12.2023 at 14:20:
Got a little help from Chatgpt 😉

I figured the non-winner rate would be low, but 4% is of course a great figure. Why can't it be that "difficult" not to win everywhere?🙂

Oh dear... no offense, but ChatGTP is not recommended for something like this.


You can also look for yourself. The result says 0.0004 and at the end it says it's 4%. But 4% is 0.04.

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Hanshanshans
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 03:11 pm CET#252
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frapi07 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 14:55:Oh dear... no offense, but ChatGTP is not recommended for something like this.


You can also look for yourself. Result is 0.0004 and at the end it says it's 4%. But 4% is 0.04.

In my opinion, this is correct. To calculate the percentage value here, the 0.0004 (decimal value) is multiplied by 100. This gives you 0.04, which is also 4 percent.

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frapi07
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 03:13 pm CET#253
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I hated statistics like the plague, but well... I won't finish the math, but I'll try to explain it.

Since it always depends on how many people qualify, we have to take an average value. It always deviates, that's clear, but there's no other way to calculate it.

Let's assume that an average of 670 people qualify and 40 win. To simplify the example, let's leave out the 2 days where "special qualifications" apply and the normal conditions also apply there. The result won't change much, but I just don't feel like doing an exact calculation. I hate the subject too much for that, sorry

How to calculate something like this is usually explained at school using a dice. What is the probability of rolling a 6 2 times in a row?

On the first roll, it's clear: a die has 6 sides, one side is shown, so 1:6 or 1/6 as a fraction. In the second roll, this probability also applies because the dice is the same, but since you have to fulfill a condition (roll a 6 twice in a row), you cannot add the two probabilities together. You have to multiply them together. 1/6 * 1/6 equals 1/36.

This is roughly how you can calculate the probability here, as a condition must also be fulfilled here (you don't have to be drawn 24 times). So with 40/ 670 you have a 6% chance of being drawn and 94% of not being drawn.

You just have to multiply this 94% btw 0.94 by 24 times. I did it and came up with something like 22% (maybe I calculated too much or too little).

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frapi07
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 03:16 pm CET#254
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Hanshanshans wrote on 10.12.2023 at 15:11:

In my opinion, that is correct. To calculate the percentage value here, the 0.0004 (decimal value) is multiplied by 100. This gives you 0.04, which is also 4 percent.


As I said, I hated statistics, but to the best of my knowledge (which may of course be wrong) the probability is a little higher. Maybe I have a logic error, idk and tbh idc xD

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Hanshanshans
Expert

The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today!

10th Dec. 2023, at 04:16 pm CET#255
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frapi07 wrote on 10/12/2023 at 15:16:Like I said I hated statistics, but to the best of my knowledge (could be wrong of course) the probability is a little higher. Maybe I have a logic error, idk and tbh idc xD

Also did the math with "0.94 24 times with yourself". Also comes to approx. 22%. Approach and calculation makes sense.

However, my or Chatgpt's 4% would be closer to the "final result" from last year...
https://www.gamblejoe.com/forum/regeln-und-hinweise/news-und-hinweise/der-groszlige-gamblejoe-adventskalender-2022-startet-heute-314682/38/#p319389

Not proof, of course. I'm not a mathematician myself. I do deal with math for my job, but this is more about calculating angles, etc.

Maybe we'll pass the question on to Counter.

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