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News & Notices: The big GambleJoe Advent Calendar 2023 starts today! (Page 18)

Topic created on 01st Dec. 2023 | Page: 18 of 39 | Answers: 577 | Views: 28,235
Butterbrezel
Elite
The different days somehow have nothing to do with the following days.

Theoretically, you have a chance of 40 to approx. 670 on 22 days, which corresponds to a chance of approx. 16.75%.
Due to the 16.75 % chance, it is of course quite possible that most users will be drawn.

In my opinion, however, there is no mathematical background for this, such as the 4% chance of not being drawn.

Since the random generator has no memory, the same 40 users could also be drawn 22 times.

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frapi07
Expert
Hanshanshans wrote on 10.12.2023 at 16:16:

Also did the math with "0.94 24 times with yourself". Also come to about 22%. Approach and calculation method makes sense.

However, my or Chatgpt's 4% would be closer to the "final result" from last year...
https://www.gamblejoe.com/forum/regeln-und-hinweise/news-und-hinweise/der-groszlige-gamblejoe-adventskalender-2022-startet-heute-314682/38/#p319389

Not proof, of course. I'm not a mathematician myself. I do deal with math for work, but this is more about calculating angles, etc.

Maybe we'll pass the question on to Counter.

The problem with last year's statistics is that although only one person qualified 24 times and never won anything, we don't know whether every member who took part always qualified.

I also don't know if it makes a mathematical difference, but with the dice you have the chance to roll all sides again after one roll. The GJ Advent calendar is different. So with each draw, the number of winners and qualifiers is always reduced by one. With 1/631 (the last one to be drawn) you only have a 0.009 chance. So 0.01%. I'm also not a mathematician/statistician and I'm not really interested in this in my private life xD

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frapi07
Expert
Butterbrezel wrote on 10.12.2023 at 16:33: The different days somehow have nothing to do with the following days.

Theoretically, on 22 days you have a chance of 40 to approx. 670, which corresponds to a chance of approx. 16.75%.
Due to the 16.75% chance, it is of course quite possible that most users will be drawn.

In my opinion, however, there is no mathematical background to this, such as the 4% chance of not being drawn.

Since the random generator has no memory, the same 40 users could also be drawn 22 times.

Yes, I had the same thought, but whether it's 17 or 22% makes little difference. It's always 1 in 5 who don't win in the Advent calendar, even though they have always qualified for it. At 4%, it would mean that 0.4/10 people (even if there are no 0.4 people) don't win anything in the event. That seemed too little to me.

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Hanshanshans
Expert
Butterbrezel wrote on 10.12.2023 at 16:33: The different days somehow have nothing to do with the following days.

Theoretically, you have a chance of 40 to approx. 670 on 22 days, which corresponds to a chance of approx. 16.75%.
Due to the 16.75 % chance, it is of course quite possible that most users will be drawn.

In my opinion, however, there is no mathematical background to this, such as the 4% chance of not being drawn.

Since the random generator has no memory, the same 40 users could also be drawn 22 times.

Is it true that the same 40 users could be drawn 22 times, even if nobody here would want to experience that (except the 40, of course)...😂


Joking aside. We're talking a bit about probability here. And this probability can be calculated mathematically. Of course, there can always be random deviations.

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needle34
Expert

Muschmusch wrote on 09.12.2023 at 18:05: Where are the unlucky people who have had the same thing in every door as me for 9 days? 😬🙄


" Your name was in the lottery Pot, but unfortunately you didn't win today.
Tomorrow is a new day with hopefully a bit more luck. "

Congratulations to the winners anyway! 👍

Here I win nothing either, almost like last year 😪

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Dan7ela
Amateur
Great campaign . Thank you very much ☺️ and a wonderful 2nd Advent to you all

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Ganja80
Amateur

needle34 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 16:57:

Here I win nothing either almost like last year 😪

Yes me too,😭 nothing times nothing 🤣

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Nick1895
Expert

needle34 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 16:57:

Here I win nothing either almost like last year 😪

You still have 13 chances. I've been lucky once so far. To be honest, I also find it a bit strange that you read a few names every day that you've never read anything about before or simply have 0% activity

A bit of a shame for those who enrich the forum with their activity. Hope that changes a bit in the course of time.

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BinGOLDiG
Expert
But today I was lucky with bingbong🥳
Accordingly, I am served for the time being 😄

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B****e
Where are the activity points? If you need 1000 to participate?

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Dr-Strange
Experienced

Nick1895 wrote on 10.12.2023 at 18:07:

You still have 13 chances. I've been lucky once so far. To be honest, I also find it a bit strange that you read a few names every day that you've never read anything about before or simply have 0% activity

A bit of a shame for those who enrich the forum with their activity. Hope that changes a little as things progress.

Amen 😇

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garfield68
Elite
cool,today i can count myself among the winners. thank you very much.

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redriver67
Expert
Also lucky today Thanks GJ for the great campaign

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Joshuafli
Rookie
Finally won today. Many thanks for this great calendar. 😄

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Yvonka
Amateur
Oh thank you...... I also got a bit of luck today! <3

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