Falko wrote on 09.09.2019 at 22:17: Would I have enough money, then I would only conclude single bets with low odds these games where the probability is as good as certain that nothing goes wrong. But with stakes of 10 to 20 euros, you can unfortunately earn nothing with single bets and that's the dilemma.1000 euros on 1 bet with odds of 1.3, you would have already earned 300 alone.
with 1.3 odds, you have a 77% probability of winning. since the bookmaker has an average odds ratio of 95%, this 77% probability of winning drops again. That is, every 4th bet will be lost on average, but you would need 4 wins at the same stake to go out with +. so it is not worth it in the long run
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Anonym
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General sports betting thread 2021
9th Sep. 2019, at 10:56 pm CEST#72
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Seniorfips wrote on 09/09/2019 at 22:36
at 1.3 odds you have a 77% probability of winning. since the bookmaker has an average odds ratio of 95%, this 77% probability of winning drops again. That is, every 4th bet will be lost on average, but you would need 4 wins at the same stake to go out with +. so it's not worth it in the long run
What you calculate there, you can also close your eyes and tap with your finger on any odds... both types I guess times as equally "easy" ein^^ Is that your serious what you just said or calculated there... and do you really think SO is a tippable game or odds determined??? ehmm... nehhh, it's not ALL THAT EASY
This is such a typical case of having no idea but it could be... all so simple, ...we calculate here a little + ....and there a little - ...then maybe by % ...é voilá -- result: *all can't be*
auswerlNRW wrote on 09/09/2019 at 22:56
What you calculate there, you can also close your eyes and tap with your finger on any quota... both types I guess as equally "easy"^^ Are you serious what you just said or calculated there...
This is how you calculate the probability of winning mathematically...
1 / quote=xx -> xx*100 is the probability of winning the bet in %. What should be wrong with this, you can explain to me certainly, or just throw out a few stupid sayings? You can also find out that the European bookmaker has an average odds ratio of 95%. (we are not talking about the Asian bookmaker / betting exchanges / agents) So you would need at a 1.3 odds, 4 bets that you have to win, compared to a lost bet, with permanently the same stake, to achieve a +. I'll even calculate it for you, so you can see it too 1000€*1,3=300€ win. 300€*4=1200€. if you lose the next bet, you have lost 1000€. 1200€-1000€=200€ win
and do you really think THIS is how a tippable game or odds are determined???? ehmm... nehhh, it's not that easy
WOW! You have really opened my eyes after 9 years of sports betting. Thanks a lot for that.
This is such a typical case of have no idea but it could yet... all be so simple, ...we calculate here bischen + ....and there bischen - ...then maybe still by % ...é voilá -- Ergebniss: *all can't be*
This is a typical case of, you have to write some bullshit, because you are apparently not able to understand that my contribution is only to explain why it is not so easy to play senselessly small odds with high amounts of money... You will not make a win in the long term
P.S: I hope, if you answer, not only some stupid sayings will come again, but a meaningful contribution from you. But I have long had the feeling that it is apparently "cool" at gamblejoe, irgendwenn without facts stupid to address...
Seniorfips wrote on 09/09/2019 at 23:51
This is such a typical case of, you have to write some bullshit, because you are apparently not able to get that my contribution is only to explain why it is not so easy to play senseless small odds with high amounts of money... You will not make a win in the long run so
P.S: I hope, if you answer, not only some stupid sayings will come again, but a meaningful contribution from you. But I have long had the feeling that it is apparently "cool" at gamblejoe, irgendwenn without facts stupid to address...
All calculated correctly. 👍
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Anonym
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General sports betting thread 2021
10th Sep. 2019, at 12:43 am CEST#75
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First... some bets 5 years, the next 10, 20 or 30 years... and if you would run tomorrow times the betting offices of your city, you would certainly find many in any of these columns past... I make every bet that of 100 people who tell you I bet for x years... the 90% has never heard of probability theory and variances let alone explain theirs let alone could apply!!!
So one has nothing to do with the other...
Your calculation of probability is worth absolutely ZERO, NIX, GAR NIX... would it be so simple even the stupidest would already be extremely successful ;-D
There are SO MANY DIFFERENT probability calculations that have to be changed for each application area or product...
On the subject of sports betting...
The subject is highly complex and extremely complicated, at least for me! I would do the devil to claim that I can calculate probabilities that must take into account as many factors as it must be the case in betting to get an approximately usable result... with which you are successful in the long term and keep variances small. To bring this finally still with the offered quota in agreement and to evaluate whether it can give a worthwhile bet (the offered quota perhaps even somewhat too positively precipitates or evenly not) is then probably mathematics master class! But neh... right, goes yes quite simply everything^^
To complete the last step, the reconcile and evaluate correctly as much information is needed as you can get (the factors that you let flow in are assigned by the one who makes the calculation approximate factors which are in turn used in formulas (the importance of the information flowing into the calculation such as... missing important players, are there injured / suspended players, statistics of the last few weeks, how is the weather, are there problems at the moment in the club, are there any problems within the club that could affect the players in the game finally and and and...)
In the meantime there are several help programs that shorten the calculation a bit and take a lot of work off your shoulders. But stop... what for? Is quite easy... stake * quota / 100 FERTIGGGG *mega facepalm *
So I've already often times n hour or two with such things concerned, sometime then again half an hour... 2 weeks later again ne three-quarters std. etc.... and that only to understand the basics.... BUT NEH, STIMMT, GEHT JA GANZ EINFACH: Einsatz * Quote / 100 FEEEERTIG ...... löl
At some point I come to a point that exceeds my mathematical skill I must say quite honestly, that's me then bischen complicated everything and then I give it up for the day again to teach myself how to perform such calculations correctly... until I'm motivated again to start a new attempt
This topic also includes sure bet calculations, value bet calculations etc...
but hey, what are they all thinking so much about, IT'S EASY: stake * odds / 100
--- link to competition removed ---... so looks then times the introduction to the topic calculations of probabilities, exclude large variances, different bets calculations in reality from and what is here can be seen as an introduction for the introduction to the topic... absolute basic knowledge, because after that it gets more and more complicated and includes more and more formulas and noteworthy things for a noteworthy good result which is the goal at the end of the year why everything here must be as accurate as possible... Unfortunately I can't think of the page that already provides a few calculated odds for each day... well, maybe I'll come up with it yet
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Anonym
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General sports betting thread 2021
10th Sep. 2019, at 12:48 am CEST#76
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e.g. surebet calculation
If the sum of all necessary bets is less than the win that will be achieved in any case, it is a sure bet (SureBet).
The formula for this is simplified:
--- Image removed from the competition ---
Here it becomes already "a little" more complex:
--- link to the competition removed ---
and that goes on almost always in such a way, until a normal person who is not straight math Proff at the university, can hardly understand that any more...
I have once heard, do not know actually whether it is really so... that probability calculations etc around the subject, the most complicated OVERHAUPT in mathematics are. BUT HEY... IS QUITE SIMPLE.... ...you know^^
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Anonym
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General sports betting thread 2021
10th Sep. 2019, at 12:56 am CEST#77
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Gamble wrote on 09/10/2019 00:17 PM
All calculated correctly. 👍
which is now not exactly difficult to multiply two numbers, manages my 8 year old niece also^^
Unfortunately, this is a result which is worth as much as a speck of dust on a 100000 light years distant planet if you want to bet successfully and at least mathematically has the possibility of luck to take a little of its power to keep variances small by permanently procuring information and correct calculations to get so bettable tips... If you then play 12 months only these tips to the also to be calculated stakes (which must also always be calculated and indeed for each individual bet of the whole year!).... as said, however, there are meanwhile good auxiliary programs to one much facilitate and take off!!! - you will make long term with great probability wins;-)
oh what am I trying here actually... has anyway no sense such bonierte people on the path of Erkenntniss to bring, to appreciate it but eh no one knows.
auswerlNRW wrote on 10/09/2019 at 00:43: First... some bet 5 years, the next 10, 20 or 30 years... and if you would run tomorrow times the betting offices of your city, you would certainly find many in any of these columns past... I make every bet that of 100 people who tell you I bet for x years... the 90% has never heard of probability theory and variances let alone explain them let alone could apply!!!
So the one has nothing to do with the other...
Your calculation of probability is worth absolutely ZERO, NIX, GAR NIX... would it be so simple even the stupidest would already be extremely successful ;-D
There are SO MANY DIFFERENT probability calculations that have to be changed for each application area or product...
On the subject of sports betting...
The subject is highly complex and extremely complicated, at least for me! I would do the devil to claim that I can calculate probabilities that must take into account as many factors as it must be the case in betting to get an approximately usable result... with which you are successful in the long term and keep variances small. To bring this finally still with the offered quota in agreement and to evaluate whether it can give a worthwhile bet (the offered quota perhaps even somewhat too positively precipitates or evenly not) is then probably mathematics master class! But neh... right, goes yes quite simply everything^^
To complete the last step, the reconcile and evaluate correctly as much information is needed as you can get (the factors that you let flow in are assigned by the one who makes the calculation approximate factors which are in turn used in formulas (the importance of the information flowing into the calculation such as... missing important players, are there injured / suspended players, statistics of the last few weeks, how is the weather, are there problems at the moment in the club, are there any problems within the club that could affect the players in the game finally and and and...)
In the meantime there are several help programs that shorten the calculation a bit and take a lot of work off your shoulders. But stop... what for? Is quite easy... stake * quota / 100 FERTIGGGG *mega facepalm *
So I've often times n hour or two dealt with such things, sometime then again half an hour... 2 weeks later again ne three quarters of an hour etc.... and that just to understand the basics.... BUT NEH, STIMMT, GEHT JA GANZ EINFACH: Einsatz * Quote / 100 FEEEERTIG ...... löl
At some point I come to a point that exceeds my mathematical skill I must say quite honestly, that's me then bischen complicated everything and then I give it up for the day again to teach myself how to perform such calculations correctly... until I'm motivated again to start a new attempt
This topic also includes sure bet calculations, value bet calculations etc...
but hey, what are they all thinking so much about, IT'S EASY: stake * odds / 100
--- link to competition removed --- ... so looks then times the introduction to the topic calculations of probabilities, exclude large variances, different bets calculations in reality from and what is here can be seen as an introduction for the introduction to the topic... absolute basic knowledge, because after that it gets more and more complicated and includes more and more formulas and noteworthy things for a noteworthy good result which is the goal at the end of the year why all this must be as accurate as possible... Unfortunately I can't think of the page that already provides a few calculated odds for each day... well, maybe I'll come up with it yet
unfortunately, i don't know how many times i have to explain to you that my contribution is only directed to the quoted contribution. which had approximately the following statement. "if I have a lot of money, I just put a lot of money on small odds, then I have easy 300€ won". That it is not so simple, you just write yourself? And with my applied formula, I could simply show him this. Therefore, I do not know why you make fun of this applied formula so. Should I rather have shown him this in a more complicated way now, so that the "expert" is satisfied?
Now to your "surebets". These could be used at that time still clearly more easily, than now. The problems nowadays are e.g. the 5% tax (so you can forget almost 90% of the european bookmakers, the loss of any betting exchanges in DE (betfair, betdaq, matchbook, smarkets)
due to this problem only a few bookies are left, which will limit you pretty fast for this. Meaning you need quite a few people to provide you with their ID, preferably some outside of DE, so you can avoid the tax. Also, I would argue that surebets are hardly worth it anymore in relation to the time spent (at least for live sure bets...)
I would argue that there are hardly any more strategies that will win in the long run and are worth the time spent.
If you are ready to run a marathon and do not want to win a 100m sprint, I'll post the links to a few people who caught my eye 4 or even 5 years ago, because they are OTHER with openness, total transparency, any time responsive... almost more like buddies, not like people who run a Buisness and other positive qualities... where it's seen on's year one
!!!!! Win guarantee !!!!!
something I would otherwise NEVER say as a lifelong gambler^^ but in this one case I would even be liable with any property if it should not occur even once that at the end of the year REAL PROFITS HAVE COME IN (the amount of course has to do with the starting capital AND ESPECIALLY accurate implementation of the things that you pretend. (speak... not in between simply times the one or other bet make only for the reason because one day thinks one has any intuitions etc.)
Is not complicated at all
There are also only a few rules... a certain Bankrollmanagment from which the stakes for each bet of a month are calculated (not arbitrarily increase or decrease!!)
no own bets
... those are the two main rules, a few things they explain to you before you start and that's it!
Actually, I would have to collect for the Tip of each here from the forum 10 euro, MINIMUM; because you are always so stubborn and argumentative^^
--- Link to the betting communities removed ---
and the homepage
--- link to the betting communities removed ---
So... and when we meet again in 2-3 years and each of you is driving around with a Porsche, don't forget me
If you are ready to run a marathon and not win a 100m sprint I now post the links to a few people who caught my eye almost 4 or even already 5 years ago because they distinguished themselves FROM EVERYONE ELSE with openness, total transparency, any time approachable... almost more like buddies, not like people who run a buisness and still other positive qualities... where it's on's year seen a
!!!!! Win guarantee !!!!!
something like this I would NEVER say as a lifelong gambler^^ but in this one case I would even be liable with any property if it should not occur even once that at the end of the year REAL PROFITS HAVE COME IN (the amount of course has to do with the starting capital AND ESPECIALLY accurate implementation of the things that you pretend. (speak... not in between simply times the one or other bet make only for the reason because one day means one would have any intuitions etc.)
It is not complicated at all
There are also only a few rules... a certain bankroll management from which the stakes for each bet of a month are calculated (do not arbitrarily increase or decrease!!)
no own bets
... those are the two main rules, a few things they explain to you before you start and that's it!
Actually, I would have to collect for the Tip of each here from the forum 10 euro, MINIMUM; because you are always so stubborn and argumentative^^
--- Link to the betting communities removed ---
and the homepage
--- link to the betting communities removed ---
So... and when we meet again in 2-3 years and each of you is driving around with a Porsche, don't forget me
That's exactly what I meant, not so often bet and not so easy times fix on something with low bet the high amount of money on it. Must be well thought out and statistics are gone through. It is enough to make 4 single bets on the whole month and not get cocky. For example, if I had 1000 euros just so over to put on individual bets, then I would focus among others on the two English top clubs Liverpool and Manchester City. The two teams really win almost all their games and with such a high single bet you can earn something, even if the odds are quite low here. And as long as you don't get cocky and overdo it with betting, you can get something out of it. Of course, this does not work with 10 or 20 euro bets, because then you have earned only 2 to a maximum of 5 euros which then of course makes such single bets pointless.
General sports betting thread 2021
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with 1.3 odds, you have a 77% probability of winning. since the bookmaker has an average odds ratio of 95%, this 77% probability of winning drops again. That is, every 4th bet will be lost on average, but you would need 4 wins at the same stake to go out with +. so it is not worth it in the long run
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General sports betting thread 2021
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What you calculate there, you can also close your eyes and tap with your finger on any odds... both types I guess times as equally "easy" ein^^ Is that your serious what you just said or calculated there... and do you really think SO is a tippable game or odds determined??? ehmm... nehhh, it's not ALL THAT EASY
This is such a typical case of having no idea but it could be... all so simple, ...we calculate here a little + ....and there a little - ...then maybe by % ...é voilá -- result: *all can't be*
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Liked this post: Anonym,
palme7777
This is how you calculate the probability of winning mathematically...
1 / quote=xx -> xx*100 is the probability of winning the bet in %. What should be wrong with this, you can explain to me certainly, or just throw out a few stupid sayings? You can also find out that the European bookmaker has an average odds ratio of 95%. (we are not talking about the Asian bookmaker / betting exchanges / agents) So you would need at a 1.3 odds, 4 bets that you have to win, compared to a lost bet, with permanently the same stake, to achieve a +. I'll even calculate it for you, so you can see it too 1000€*1,3=300€ win. 300€*4=1200€. if you lose the next bet, you have lost 1000€. 1200€-1000€=200€ win
WOW! You have really opened my eyes after 9 years of sports betting. Thanks a lot for that.
This is a typical case of, you have to write some bullshit, because you are apparently not able to understand that my contribution is only to explain why it is not so easy to play senselessly small odds with high amounts of money... You will not make a win in the long term
P.S: I hope, if you answer, not only some stupid sayings will come again, but a meaningful contribution from you. But I have long had the feeling that it is apparently "cool" at gamblejoe, irgendwenn without facts stupid to address...
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Liked this post: Anonym,
x00NY
All calculated correctly. 👍
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So one has nothing to do with the other...
Your calculation of probability is worth absolutely ZERO, NIX, GAR NIX... would it be so simple even the stupidest would already be extremely successful ;-D
There are SO MANY DIFFERENT probability calculations that have to be changed for each application area or product...
On the subject of sports betting...
The subject is highly complex and extremely complicated, at least for me! I would do the devil to claim that I can calculate probabilities that must take into account as many factors as it must be the case in betting to get an approximately usable result... with which you are successful in the long term and keep variances small. To bring this finally still with the offered quota in agreement and to evaluate whether it can give a worthwhile bet (the offered quota perhaps even somewhat too positively precipitates or evenly not) is then probably mathematics master class! But neh... right, goes yes quite simply everything^^
To complete the last step, the reconcile and evaluate correctly as much information is needed as you can get (the factors that you let flow in are assigned by the one who makes the calculation approximate factors which are in turn used in formulas (the importance of the information flowing into the calculation such as... missing important players, are there injured / suspended players, statistics of the last few weeks, how is the weather, are there problems at the moment in the club, are there any problems within the club that could affect the players in the game finally and and and...)
In the meantime there are several help programs that shorten the calculation a bit and take a lot of work off your shoulders. But stop... what for? Is quite easy... stake * quota / 100 FERTIGGGG *mega facepalm *
So I've already often times n hour or two with such things concerned, sometime then again half an hour... 2 weeks later again ne three-quarters std. etc.... and that only to understand the basics.... BUT NEH, STIMMT, GEHT JA GANZ EINFACH: Einsatz * Quote / 100 FEEEERTIG ...... löl
At some point I come to a point that exceeds my mathematical skill I must say quite honestly, that's me then bischen complicated everything and then I give it up for the day again to teach myself how to perform such calculations correctly... until I'm motivated again to start a new attempt
This topic also includes sure bet calculations, value bet calculations etc...
but hey, what are they all thinking so much about, IT'S EASY: stake * odds / 100
--- link to competition removed ---... so looks then times the introduction to the topic calculations of probabilities, exclude large variances, different bets calculations in reality from and what is here can be seen as an introduction for the introduction to the topic... absolute basic knowledge, because after that it gets more and more complicated and includes more and more formulas and noteworthy things for a noteworthy good result which is the goal at the end of the year why everything here must be as accurate as possible... Unfortunately I can't think of the page that already provides a few calculated odds for each day... well, maybe I'll come up with it yet
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
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If the sum of all necessary bets is less than the win that will be achieved in any case, it is a sure bet (SureBet).
The formula for this is simplified:
--- Image removed from the competition ---
Here it becomes already "a little" more complex:
--- link to the competition removed ---
and that goes on almost always in such a way, until a normal person who is not straight math Proff at the university, can hardly understand that any more...
I have once heard, do not know actually whether it is really so... that probability calculations etc around the subject, the most complicated OVERHAUPT in mathematics are. BUT HEY... IS QUITE SIMPLE.... ...you know^^
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Nobody has liked this post so far
which is now not exactly difficult to multiply two numbers, manages my 8 year old niece also^^
Unfortunately, this is a result which is worth as much as a speck of dust on a 100000 light years distant planet if you want to bet successfully and at least mathematically has the possibility of luck to take a little of its power to keep variances small by permanently procuring information and correct calculations to get so bettable tips... If you then play 12 months only these tips to the also to be calculated stakes (which must also always be calculated and indeed for each individual bet of the whole year!).... as said, however, there are meanwhile good auxiliary programs to one much facilitate and take off!!! - you will make long term with great probability wins;-)
oh what am I trying here actually... has anyway no sense such bonierte people on the path of Erkenntniss to bring, to appreciate it but eh no one knows.
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Nobody has liked this post so far
unfortunately, i don't know how many times i have to explain to you that my contribution is only directed to the quoted contribution. which had approximately the following statement. "if I have a lot of money, I just put a lot of money on small odds, then I have easy 300€ won". That it is not so simple, you just write yourself? And with my applied formula, I could simply show him this. Therefore, I do not know why you make fun of this applied formula so. Should I rather have shown him this in a more complicated way now, so that the "expert" is satisfied?
Now to your "surebets". These could be used at that time still clearly more easily, than now. The problems nowadays are e.g. the 5% tax (so you can forget almost 90% of the european bookmakers, the loss of any betting exchanges in DE (betfair, betdaq, matchbook, smarkets)
due to this problem only a few bookies are left, which will limit you pretty fast for this. Meaning you need quite a few people to provide you with their ID, preferably some outside of DE, so you can avoid the tax. Also, I would argue that surebets are hardly worth it anymore in relation to the time spent (at least for live sure bets...)
I would argue that there are hardly any more strategies that will win in the long run and are worth the time spent.
Edit: Removed link in quote.
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Liked this post:
Falko
!!!!! Win guarantee !!!!!
something I would otherwise NEVER say as a lifelong gambler^^ but in this one case I would even be liable with any property if it should not occur even once that at the end of the year REAL PROFITS HAVE COME IN (the amount of course has to do with the starting capital AND ESPECIALLY accurate implementation of the things that you pretend. (speak... not in between simply times the one or other bet make only for the reason because one day thinks one has any intuitions etc.)
Is not complicated at all
There are also only a few rules... a certain Bankrollmanagment from which the stakes for each bet of a month are calculated (not arbitrarily increase or decrease!!)
no own bets
... those are the two main rules, a few things they explain to you before you start and that's it!
Actually, I would have to collect for the Tip of each here from the forum 10 euro, MINIMUM; because you are always so stubborn and argumentative^^
--- Link to the betting communities removed ---
and the homepage
--- link to the betting communities removed ---
So... and when we meet again in 2-3 years and each of you is driving around with a Porsche, don't forget me
This post has been translated automatically
General sports betting thread 2021
Nobody has liked this post so far
That's exactly what I meant, not so often bet and not so easy times fix on something with low bet the high amount of money on it. Must be well thought out and statistics are gone through. It is enough to make 4 single bets on the whole month and not get cocky. For example, if I had 1000 euros just so over to put on individual bets, then I would focus among others on the two English top clubs Liverpool and Manchester City. The two teams really win almost all their games and with such a high single bet you can earn something, even if the odds are quite low here. And as long as you don't get cocky and overdo it with betting, you can get something out of it. Of course, this does not work with 10 or 20 euro bets, because then you have earned only 2 to a maximum of 5 euros which then of course makes such single bets pointless.
Edit: Links from quote removed.
This post has been translated automatically