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Feedback: Gamblejoe Advent Calendar (Page 26)

Topic created on 01st Dec. 2019 | Page: 26 of 86 | Answers: 856 | Views: 135,562
Begbie
Elite
if you mean the beautiful sentence next to the funny guy with the santa hat, it was there.
there are 18 days left. the video you recently provided revealed it
the part only works properly after hundreds of runs...

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Chantal
Amateur
Thank you thank you 😝

exactly one year ago at nicholas i had the luck for the first time
and this year again 😍

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Delarion
Amateur
Matthias wrote on 06.12.2019 at 18:19
Since we are giving away a total of 520 tickets in the entire time and I assume we have about 300 permanent attendees, the chance of winning at least ONE ticket should be close to 100%


unfortunately I have to disagree with you, of course the chance would be high, but the chance of winning remains the same every day, except where the number of gardens increases to 40^^

the chance at 100% would only be given if no one could win twice. but since every day, everyone has the same chances of one of the 20 cards, there is in the end only the chance of 0.04% to be drawn on one of the 24 days (for the sake of simplicity, I ignore the 40 cards and the variable players in the calculation and assume only 243 players)

the probability of not being drawn on one of the 24 days is of course also quite small but bad luck can happen to anyone


still thanks for the 10€ and congratulations to all other winners

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snopsim
Top Member
Congratulations to today's winners 🎊

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Cubey
Top Member
Gz to the winners of today

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Delarion
Amateur
Begbie wrote on 12/06/2019 6:26 pm: if you mean the beautiful sentence next to the funny guy with the Santa hat, it was there.
there are still 18 days. the video what you had recently provided, has revealeds yet
the part funzt only reasonably after hundreds of runs...

the part works like a dice, with over 100 attempts you will eventually come to a stable value, where all eyes have fallen the same number of times


but if you roll only 2x it can easily happen that 2x the 1 comes...

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Matthias
Expert

Delarion wrote on Dec 06, 2019 at 6:37 pm

unfortunately i have to disagree with you, of course the chance would be high, however the chance to win remains the same every day, except where the number of gardens increases to 40^^

the chance at 100% would only be given if no one could win twice. but since every day, everyone has the same chances of one of the 20 cards, there is in the end only the chance of 0.04% to be drawn on one of the 24 days (for the sake of simplicity, I ignore the 40 cards and the variable players in the calculation and assume only 243 players)

the probability of not being drawn on one of the 24 days is of course also quite small but bad luck can happen to anyone


still thanks for the 10€ and congratulations to all the other winners

Ok maybe I can learn something. Is there something wrong with my following example calculation?

1. Lottery - 10 participants, 5 wins - random draw - chance of winning is 50%
2. Lottery - 100 participants, 50 wins - random draw - chance of winning is still 50%
3. Lottery - 200 participants, 50 wins - random drawing - chance of winning is 25%
GJ lottery - 243 participants, 20 wins - random drawing - chance of winning would be 8,2%
GJ lottery Santa Claus: 243 participants, 40 wins - random draw - chance of winning would be 16,5%

Or is there a mistake in thinking?

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Patizi
Elite
Delarion wrote on 06/12/2019 at 18:41
the part works like a dice, with more than 100 attempts you will eventually come to a stable value, where all eyes have fallen the same number of times


but if you roll only 2x it can easily happen that 2x the 1 comes...

You really have no hobbies

Either you win or you don't. It does not matter!

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Counter
Experienced
Begbie wrote on 12/06/2019 6:26 pm: if you mean the beautiful sentence next to the funny guy with the Santa hat, it was there.
there are still 18 days. the video what you had recently provided, has revealeds yet
the part funzt only reasonably after hundreds of runs...

Hello Begbie,
I always hope that such contributions from you are meant sarcastically. It is called coincidence because it is just coincidence. Here there is no weighting. Otherwise the values at the end of the video would look different. And certainly this weighting does not change during the runs

Hello Delarion,
I agree with your assumption that probably not all participants will get at least one card in 24 draws. It is theoretically possible but the probability is not very high.

Good luck to all of you

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Emx81
Top Member
Congratulations to all the winners. Too bad # not had luck

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