Study: RTP information influences perception of chances of winning

If an exact payout percentage is stated in the online casino, the resulting odds of winning are misunderstood by many players. At least that is the result of a study conducted in the UK and the USA and published a few weeks ago. Would it therefore make more sense from a player protection perspective to no longer state the RTP value for online slots in future, contrary to the current regulatory situation?

Explorers from the universities of Las Vegas, Bristol and London have discovered that it can be counterproductive for players if an exact payout ratio is specified for online slots. A not inconsiderable proportion of players link the specific RTP information to unrealistically high expectations of winning. As part of a recently published study, the participants were divided into a total of four groups. While one group of participants was given one or no RTP value, the other groups were tested with different wording in relation to the house advantage - with surprising results.

RTP statement leads to unrealistically high profit estimate

In the first part of the study, a total of around 2,000 gamblers were asked how high they estimated their chances of winning under two different conditions in the game. The first group was shown an RTP value of 90% and the second group was shown no RTP value at all.

The result was astonishing: without specifying a win rate, the participants estimated their chances of winning at a median value of 2.82 on a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 stands for very low and 7 for very high chances of winning. Consequently, gamblers rate their chances of winning without an RTP value as rather poor.

The situation is different if an RTP value of 90% is specified in the game. In this case, the median perceived chance of winning is already 4.48. Accordingly, players here consciously or unconsciously assume that they have significantly better chances of winning, even though an RTP value of 90% is not considered above-average profitability.

How decisive is the "house advantage formulation" for the perception of win?

In the second part of the study, around 4,000 gamblers from the USA and the UK were divided into four further groups. In the group in which an RTP value of 90% was specified, the median value was again a comparable 4.63. Without an RTP value, the median value was only 2.99.

What is interesting about this part of the study is that two different formulations of the house advantage were "tested" here. In the group where the game states that the "game retains an average of 10% of the bets", the median value was 3.80. In the alternative formulation "The game costs an average of 10% of the bets", the median value was only 3.02. From this, it can be concluded that players are more optimistic about their chances of winning when it is stated that the game retains part of the bets. When costs are mentioned, the player's own chances of winning are directly assessed as much worse. It is no secret that many gambling providers and game developers make use of these psychological tricks to influence players at least a little bit. Back in May 2022, we at GambleJoe asked ourselves what "psychological tricks" the casinos in Las Vegas use.

Conclusion

Overall, the current study comes to the conclusion that the currently common indication of average payout odds in virtual slot games is often misunderstood. Many gamblers overestimate their chances of winning, especially when an RTP value is stated transparently. The responsible authorities and politicians must therefore now ask themselves whether a mandatory indication of the average payout ratio is still appropriate based on these findings. Currently, this information is mandatory for all online slots in accordance with the State Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV).

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